Expanded proposal · OE-7 in DPM planning · Directorate and CGNAT

Climate Guardians

Secondary students would investigate local rainfall and risk with teachers, technicians and civil protection teams, using observations in class and to identify questions for prevention.

Status: Proposed upgrade of a project under design
Suggested areas: Nova Friburgo (RJ), Petrópolis (RJ) and São Sebastião (SP)
Potential interlocutors: MCTI, MEC, education authorities, municipalities and civil protection teams. Cooperation with Chinese institutions is an option to explore.
Technical anchor: Sites of the SABO project

Summary for decision-makers · 1-minute read

Climate Guardians in five frames

A simple idea: start at school to protect lives, train professionals and create companies.

The problem

Rainfall at a headwater site can differ from a town-centre measurement. Observations at both sites can reveal that difference.

Schools step in

Students would read instruments on school grounds and analyse data with teachers. Technical teams would install and maintain equipment.

How the data could help

Validated data could support threshold research. The competent authorities decide when to issue warnings.

Ideas for prototypes

Student prototypes could be considered for incubation, intellectual property protection or further training.

Effects to evaluate

The pilot would evaluate learning, data quality and effects on the community.

Those who measure, understand. Those who understand, prevent.

Five questions for decision

Protecting peopleThe sheet suggests examining a 50% mortality reduction by 2034. Attribution would require a baseline and comparative evaluation.

Training and innovationAn eight-year discussion scenario envisages 1,500 technicians, 150 specialists, 15 start-ups and 10 patent applications or software registrations.

Costs and benefitsCompare installation, training and five years of maintenance with measurable educational and operational benefits.

ContinuityAssess legal arrangements, budget and governance for long-term operation.

CooperationConsult Chinese and Brazilian institutions about exchanges and scholarships, and assess the relevance of MCR2030 for municipalities.

What we are asking for now

Assess the concept and pilot feasibility across the three candidate areas.
Authorise engagement with MCTI, MEC, the Federal Network, technical schools and municipalities.
Begin institutionalising it as a State project and consulting on cooperation with China.

See all decisions ↓

Full project sheet

The idea in one sentence

Schools could measure rain safely, study how it varies across the area and discuss with civil protection teams which observations would support prevention.

The original concept proposes school rain gauges and open data. This expansion outlines six workstreams and prioritises schools serving exposed communities. Three areas associated with SABO are suggested for assessment with MCTI, MEC, education authorities and municipalities. Participation would require consultation, staffing, resources and local assessment.

6integrated fronts, from the classroom to the emergency protocol

3areas suggested for technical assessment and local consultation

100schools in a planning scenario for 2028, subject to agreement

Continuity

Options for institutional continuity

A culture of risk takes a generation to form. The project must therefore outlast electoral terms, with a legal basis, a multi-year budget and permanent governance. The 2027–2034 target horizon spans two government cycles.

Legal basis

The proposal draws on Brazil’s National Civil Protection and Defence Policy and suggests examining a joint instrument for MIDR, MEC and MCTI and alignment with the national plan. The appropriate legal form would require official review.

Multi-year budget

An option for discussion in the 2028–2031 multi-year plan, including potential additional funding and maintenance costs.

Permanent governance

An interministerial steering committee with states, municipalities, the Federal Network and civil society, an executive secretariat at DPM and six-monthly reviews.

Curriculum and careers

Inclusion in secondary-school learning pathways and in the National Catalogue of Technical Courses, so the project does not depend on each school volunteering.

Data as public heritage

The proposal calls for agreeing on standards, custody, access and responsibilities for environmental data with interested institutions, including Cemaden and ANA.

Transparency and evaluation

A public targets dashboard, an annual results report and an independent impact evaluation every four years.

Why monitor, and why start with young people

The rain that causes a disaster does not always fall where people live

The sheet describes the August 2010 debris flow at Zhouqu, Gansu, China. Measurements presented at the seminar illustrate how the spatial distribution of rain within a catchment can affect interpretation of an event.

The same pattern appears in Brazil's mountain regions: extreme, concentrated rain on steep headwaters, thin soil over rock, houses on cut slopes and settlements at the mouths of valleys. Reliable warnings depend on three things these areas still lack: a dense measurement network, long historical records and triggers calibrated for each catchment.

Regular school readings would support learning. Teachers and professionals would help students compare observations with official records and discuss their limitations with families.

Accumulated rainfall, night of 7 to 8 August 2010

Zhouqu, Gansu (China), 9 pm to 7 am

County town (1,380 m)

11 mm

Headwaters (Dongshan station)

97 mm

The headwater reading was about nine times the town-centre reading. These figures come from the seminar account cited in the original sheet and illustrate this event.

Measure where the danger starts

Recording rain gauges in headwaters and on slopes, not only in neighbourhoods and schools.

Measure the water inside the soil

Water pressure and moisture help professionals assess slope conditions alongside geology, drainage and local records.

Record when each event happens

Without knowing when each landslide occurred, warning triggers cannot be calibrated.

How the project works

A virtuous chain that starts at school and returns to the community

Each front feeds the next. The cumulative result is a more risk-aware population that demands and sustains prevention.

Education and risk culture. High-school students learn to read their territory, the rain and the warning signs.
Participatory monitoring. Students would take readings in a safe school setting. Technicians would be responsible for field installation, calibration and maintenance.
Data and statistics. New records, combined with recovered historical data, improve studies of past events.
Triggers, warnings and protocols. Thresholds calibrated for each catchment and emergency plans revised with civil defence.
Innovation incubator. Real challenges become prototypes, patents and companies selling services and equipment.
Workforce training. Trained talent supplies municipalities, the state and the market, and returns to schools as mentors.

The six fronts in detail

Proposed activities and outputs

Front 01MEC · state school networks · DPM

Education and risk culture

Develop a proposed environmental education and prevention pathway aligned with the curriculum, education authorities and the experience of Cemaden Educação.

Priority for schools with the most students living in high and very high risk areas
A risk-culture learning path for secondary school, using Cemaden Education materials
Climate Guardians clubs in schools, with teachers trained as multipliers
Regional science fairs and an annual national showcase
Evacuation drills in schools and neighbourhoods, with students relaying information to their families

Proposed outputCurriculum, teaching kit, trained teachers and active clubs in every pilot school.

Front 02Cemaden · DPM/CGNAT · universities

Participatory and technical monitoring

Densify measurement where danger forms, complementing the official networks of Cemaden, the national meteorological institute (INMET) and state agencies without duplicating them.

School telemetric rain gauges with supervised learning activities and technical maintenance.
Recording rain gauges in the headwaters of valleys that drain into settled areas
Piezometers and soil-moisture sensors on critical slopes at the SABO sites
Water-level sensors on urban streams, with cameras at critical points

Proposed outputA three-layer network (school, headwater, slope) with telemetry, maintenance and open data.

Front 03DPM/CGNAT · Cemaden · universities

Data, statistics and historical records

Turn measurements into knowledge: reliable time series, an inventory of events with date and time, and studies that revisit past statistics.

Recovery and digitisation of historical rainfall and disaster records, with student help
Inventory of landslides and flash floods with start time, location and impact
Updated intense-rainfall curves (IDF-MC project) using sub-hourly series
Calibration of slope-stability models (TRIGRS) with piezometer data

Proposed outputA standardised open database integrated with Cemaden and the national water agency (ANA), plus statistical reports per catchment.

Front 04Civil defence · Cemaden · DPM

Triggers, warnings and emergency protocols

Use the data to build catchment-specific warning triggers and improve the contingency plans of local civil defence.

Rainfall and soil-moisture thresholds correlated with the event inventory
Verification of issued warnings (hits and false alarms) to build credibility
Review of emergency protocols and evacuation routes with civil defence
Schools and communities would practise civil protection procedures for receiving official alerts.

Proposed outputValidated triggers per catchment, revised contingency plans and annual drills.

Front 05MCTI · universities and IFs · Sebrae

Innovation incubator

Turn real monitoring problems into technology challenges and give the best solutions a path to become products, patents and companies.

Annual challenges: low-cost sensors, resilient telemetry, warning apps, data analysis
Hackathons and pre-incubation with university and Federal Institute incubators
Support for intellectual property protection and access to MCTI funding instruments
Assessment of public procurement options for validated solutions.

Proposed outputField-validated prototypes, patent applications and startups with first contracts.

Front 06MEC · IFs · municipalities · states

Workforce training and employability

Build a skilled workforce in monitoring, geotechnics, hydrology and risk management, matched to the needs of municipal and state governments.

Certified technical and vocational courses at the Federal Institutes and state technical school networks (FAETEC in Rio de Janeiro, Centro Paula Souza and its ETECs in São Paulo)
New technical tracks in environmental monitoring, geotechnics and civil protection, with labs built around the project's instruments
Internships and grants in municipal and state civil defence
A talent pool to support municipal and state hiring and public exams
Former guardians mentoring new cohorts

Proposed outputCertified technicians, interns in civil defence and an active talent pool.

Technical backbone

Technical schools and Federal Institutes as the project's backbone

Brazil's Federal Network of Professional, Scientific and Technological Education and the state technical school networks (FAETEC in Rio de Janeiro and Centro Paula Souza in São Paulo) reach inland towns and already train technicians, teachers and researchers. They connect secondary schools with science and the market.

Regional Guardian hubs

Each hub has an instrumentation and calibration lab and a team supporting the schools in its region.

Technical courses with a risk module

Existing courses in environment, meteorology, geology, geoprocessing, electronics, IT and drone operation gain a risk-management module and hands-on work with the network.

Network maintenance

Students could practise instrument reading and checks in labs or on school grounds under supervision. Qualified professionals would handle headwater, channel, bridge and slope fieldwork. Stipends would require a funding call.

Outreach to schools

Extension projects take Guardian clubs to state and municipal schools near each campus.

Innovation and patents

Technology Innovation Offices protect inventions, and the institutes' incubators host the project's startups.

Teachers and specialists

Teaching degrees, postgraduate courses and professional master's programmes train the multiplier teachers and specialists set out in the targets.

Monitoring

Instruments and where each one fits

Each instrument answers a different question. Together they show the rain, the water in the soil and how streams respond.

Rain gauge

Counts how many millimetres of rain fell. The first instrument used by school clubs.

Recording rain gauge

A small bucket tips every 0.2 mm and the logger sends rain intensity over the network.

Piezometer

A tube buried in the slope measures the rise of water inside the soil.

Soil-moisture sensor

Probes at several depths show how much water the soil already holds.

Inclinometer

Detects when the slope starts to move, millimetre by millimetre.

Level sensor

Mounted under a bridge, it measures the stream level without touching the water.

Monitoring camera

Confirms what happened and records the exact time of the event.

School weather station

Solar-powered rain, wind, temperature and humidity readings in the schoolyard.

Drone

Flies over slopes and valleys to build 3D maps, spot cracks and scars and assess damage right after an event. Flown by licensed technicians under Brazilian aviation rules (ANAC and DECEA).

Instrument	What it measures	What it is for	Layer
Telemetric rain gauge	Accumulated rainfall	Education, network densification and radar validation	school
Recording rain gauge	Rain intensity every 5 to 10 minutes	Intensity–duration triggers, IDF curves and historical series	schoolheadwater
Piezometer	Groundwater level and pore pressure	Helps interpret water pressure and saturation in the context of slope geology.	slope
Soil-moisture sensor	Water stored at several depths	Describes antecedent conditions for studying infiltration and stability.	headwaterslope
Inclinometer / extensometer	Slope displacement in millimetres	Records displacement for specialist geotechnical assessment.	slope
Radar level sensor	Stream level, without contact	Flash floods and blockages (a river that suddenly drops)	channel
Telemetric camera	Images of the channel or slope	Documents events and helps estimate timing.	channelslope
Drone (UAV)	Aerial images, 3D terrain models and high-resolution maps	Map scars, cracks and settlements; compare before and after events; support response and damage assessment	slopechannel
Compact weather station	Rain, temperature, humidity, wind and pressure	Meteorological context and teaching activities.	school

Candidate pilot areas

Three candidate areas linked to SABO studies

The sheet suggests assessing three areas linked to SABO studies. Selection would depend on local station coverage, catchment risk, school participation, safety and maintenance capacity.

RIO DE JANEIRO · MOUNTAIN REGION

Nova Friburgo

January 2011

Epicentre of the Mountain Region megadisaster, with more than 900 deaths across the affected municipalities.

Focus: instrumented slopes at 2011 landslide scars, recording rain gauges in headwaters and technical training with local schools.

RIO DE JANEIRO · MOUNTAIN REGION

Petrópolis

February 2022

About 250 mm of rain in a few hours and more than 230 deaths, most on occupied hillsides.

Focus: houses on cut slopes, level sensors on urban rivers and review of warning protocols with civil defence.

SÃO PAULO · NORTH COAST

São Sebastião

February 2023

More than 600 mm in 24 hours, a national record, and 65 deaths on the north coast, most in Vila Sahy.

Focus: debris flows in the Serra do Mar, occupied valley fans and schools as community alert points.

SABO is a reference for debris-flow studies. Future collaboration could test whether rainfall, moisture and event records improve analysis of affected areas.

Where to start

First, the schools of students who live in the highest-risk areas

Young people living on hillsides and valley floors are the most exposed, and the best placed to bring prevention into their homes. Schools are chosen by where their students live, not only by where the school building stands.

Map the risk

Combine the high and very high risk sectors mapped by the Geological Survey of Brazil, municipal mapping and the IBGE–Cemaden dataset on population in risk areas.

Locate who lives there

Estimate the resident population in each sector, paying attention to children, young people, older people and people with disabilities.

Cross with enrolments

With the education departments, identify which schools enrol the most students living in those sectors.

Prioritise and begin

Rank schools by the number of students at risk and start the pilot, clubs and family drills there.

Education authorities would analyse exposure in a restricted environment. The project would receive aggregate counts with small groups suppressed. Publications and maps would not identify students or households.

International cooperation

A potential partnership with the Chinese government

On 2 November 2026, SEDEC took part in Hunan, China, in the Ministerial Seminar on Disaster Prevention and Mitigation and Emergency Geospatial Technology Enhancement for Belt and Road Countries, organised by China Aid. The presentations covered exactly the issues this project addresses: rainfall-triggered failure of shallow slopes, flash-flood debris flows and the difficulty of warning people when heavy rain falls in the headwaters.

China has experience in community-based geohazard monitoring, with residents trained as local monitors, and in networks of low-cost instruments installed at large numbers of hazard sites. Brazil and China have also cooperated for decades on Earth-observation satellites through the CBERS programme. The seminar itself was hosted by a vocational college of safety technology, a model close to this project's technical-school front.

Training and exchange

Courses and technical missions for teachers, civil defence staff and students, along the lines of China Aid seminars.

Sister technical schools

Partnerships between Brazilian technical schools and Chinese vocational colleges of safety and disaster management, such as the seminar host.

Equipment and technology

Cooperation on supplying and jointly developing sensors, with technology transfer to the Brazilian incubator.

Debris-flow research

Exchange with Chinese mountain-hazard research centres, supporting the SABO project and trigger calibration.

Geospatial data

Satellite imagery, including from the CBERS programme, to map landslide scars, settlements and risk areas.

Community monitoring

Sharing experience between China's local-monitor model and Climate Guardians.

Proposed scholarships in China

An idea to discuss with host institutions and funders. Each option would require a call, selection and funding, with supervision and specific authorisations for minors.

Level 1

Short technical courses

Weeks of hands-on training in monitoring, sensors and emergency response at vocational colleges of safety.

Award-winning technical students

Level 2

Undergraduate degrees

Full scholarships in geology, geotechnical engineering, hydrology and emergency management.

Olympiad medallists and science-fair winners

Level 3

Teacher specialisation

Refresher courses for multiplier teachers, along the lines of Chinese cooperation seminars.

Teachers from school networks and IFs

Level 4

Master's degrees

Applied research on mountain hazards, debris flows and warning systems.

Project technicians and graduates

Level 5

Doctorates

Training researchers who return to lead monitoring centres, universities and federal institutes.

Master's graduates with applied projects

Reference institutions to consultInstitute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chengdu); State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention, Chengdu University of Technology; China University of Geosciences; Hunan Vocational College of Safety Technology.

Possible instrumentsChinese Government Scholarships (China Scholarship Council), Chinese cooperation training programmes and Brazilian co-funding through CAPES and CNPq.

Return and mentoring conditions could be negotiated with funders and hosts and stated in any call for applications.

“Safe and sound.”Closing motto of Cheng Aibao's presentation

The original sheet records a local emergency-management platform presented in Hunan, bringing together information on the area, events, stations and warnings.

Institutional exchanges could explore how validated school observations might reach civil protection teams. Operations and use criteria would require technical agreement.

Cooperation would be pursued through the Brazilian government's official channels (Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Brazilian Cooperation Agency), with MCTI and MEC taking part. Terms depend on negotiation between the two governments.

Institutional arrangement

Institutional roles for discussion

Partner	Role in the project	Fronts
DPM / CGNAT (MIDR)	Overall coordination, data standards, integration with SABO, TRIGRS, IDF-MC and ICPM	all
MCTI and Cemaden	Science and innovation, incubator funding, technical specifications and integration with the official monitoring network	02 · 03 · 04 · 05
MEC, state networks and IFs	Curriculum, teacher training, participating schools and technical courses	01 · 06
Municipalities	Municipal schools, installation sites, public procurement of innovation and hiring of trained professionals	01 · 05 · 06
Local and state civil defence	Use of data in warnings, protocol review, drills and internships	04 · 06
RJ and SP state governments	State school networks, state monitoring and geology agencies	01 · 02 · 06
Universities and incubators	Slope instrumentation, data analysis, pre-incubation and mentoring	02 · 03 · 05
Technical schools (IFs, FAETEC, Centro Paula Souza, SENAI)	Technical courses, instrumentation labs, network maintenance and internships	02 · 05 · 06
Government of China (under exploration)	Training, technical-school exchange, monitoring technology, debris-flow research and satellite data	02 · 03 · 05 · 06

Roadmap

Proposed phases and dates

Phase 0 · 2026–2027

Agreements and diagnosis

Agreement with MCTI, MEC and municipalities
Map of the existing network and gaps
Risk areas crossed with enrolments; priority schools selected

Phase 1 · 2027

Pilot in areas that opt in

Clubs and curriculum in schools
First stations in all three layers
First incubator challenge

Phase 2 · 2028

Study of thresholds

First triggers per catchment
Revised protocols and drills
First cohort of technical courses

Phase 3 · 2029

Scale and replication

Review the 100-school reference against capacity to expand.
Test prospective users’ interest in prototypes.
Model replicable in other mountain regions

Ideas that make a difference

Twelve initiatives to change Brazil's disaster culture

Creative, low- to moderate-cost proposals that give the project visibility, bring in the market and open career paths for young people.

risk culture

Water Memory

Students could research past floods and design high-water markers. Authorised adults would install them at safe public locations.

risk culturecareers

Brazilian Disaster Prevention Olympiad

A national competition for secondary and technical students, modelled on the science olympiads, with medals, scholarships and places in the incubator.

risk culture

Guardian Neighbour

Adult-led exercises could help classes and families learn how to receive official warnings and request assistance. Responsible response teams would support vulnerable residents during emergencies.

risk culturescience

Living catchment model

An augmented-reality sandbox with simulated rain: students watch water run off, soil saturate and a slope fail, then compare it with real data from their own station.

marketcareers

Maintenance as a business

Graduates could explore forming maintenance firms or cooperatives. Contracts would depend on demand and each authority’s procurement procedures.

market

Assessing public innovation procurement

Public bodies could assess procurement options for validated solutions. Each purchase would depend on need, budget, legal review and applicable procedures.

marketscience

Guardian Data Seal

A quality certification for stations run by schools, condominiums, companies and farmers. Those meeting the standard join the open network, creating a market for installation, calibration and data services.

science

Historical Data Hunt

School drives to digitise old rainfall and disaster records kept in newspapers, parishes, registry offices and municipal archives, extending the series used in statistical studies.

risk culture

National Guardian Day

One day a year with a simultaneous drill in every participating school, a project showcase and public reporting of the data, inspired by Japan's Disaster Prevention Day.

careers

Civil Protection Technical Residency

A first-job programme: one paid year in civil defence and monitoring centres, with mentoring and certification, opening the way to public exams and the job market.

careersscience

Brazil–China Young Guardians Exchange

A possible exchange between vocational schools, subject to partners, selection, funding, supervision and travel authorisations.

risk culture

Learning cities

Municipalities could consider joining MCR2030 and discuss indicators with the responsible teams.

8-year horizon · 2027–2034

Proposed impact targets for discussion

Working scenarios for agreement with partners. The sheet proposes comparisons for 2028, 2030 and 2034. The figures are ambitions for evaluation. Funding and outcomes are unconfirmed.

Innovation10patent applications and software registrations

Innovation15incubated startups with products or services on the market

People1,500technicians trained in monitoring, geotechnics and civil protection

People150specialists trained through postgraduate and master's programmes

Education30,000young people taking part in 300 schools

Education1,000teachers trained as multipliers

Protection−50%deaths from landslides and flash floods in participating municipalities

Protection−30%damage and losses in events with early warning

Target	2028	2030	2034
Participating schools	100	180	300
Participating young people	5,000	12,000	30,000
Teachers trained	200	500	1,000
Technicians trained	150	600	1,500
Specialists trained	20	60	150
Scholarship holders in China (courses, degrees, postgraduate)	1–2	3–5	5–10
Active monitoring stations	100	250	500
Catchments with their own warning trigger	3	8	20
Patent applications and software registrations	1	4	10
Incubated startups	2	6	15
Reduction in deaths (vs. 2011–2026 average)	—	−25%	−50%
Reduction in damage in events with warning	—	−15%	−30%

The sheet suggests constructing a 2011–2026 baseline from S2iD and the Disaster Atlas. Reduction scenarios depend on event frequency, severity, exposure and reporting. Attribution would require a comparative evaluation. The figure of 100 schools in 2028 is also a planning proposal.

How success will be measured

Indicators by front

Numerical targets will be agreed with partners in Phase 0.

Front	Indicator
01 Education	Students living in risk areas reached; schools, trained teachers and participating students; risk perception before and after
02 Monitoring	Active stations; share of time transmitting during rain events
03 Data	Years of continuous record; events inventoried with date and time; historical records recovered
04 Warnings	Catchments with their own trigger; hit and false-alarm rates; plans revised and drills held
05 Innovation	Validated prototypes; patent applications; startups created and contracts signed
06 Workforce	Certified technicians; interns in civil defence; graduates hired by municipalities and the state

Watch points

Main risks and how to reduce them

Unmaintained equipmentOperation and maintenance budget for at least five years and one person responsible for each station.

Poor data qualityA single installation protocol, periodic calibration and quality control by Cemaden and universities.

Communication failure during rainRedundant telemetry (cellular and radio) and local memory in the data loggers.

Discontinuity in schoolsThe project built into the curriculum and school calendar, not dependent on a single teacher.

Confused roles in warningsThe community produces data and protects itself; issuing official warnings remains the responsibility of civil defence.

Incubator without a marketChallenges defined from real municipal needs, using public procurement of innovation.

Decisions requested from the Director

To move forward

Approve the expanded Climate Guardians concept with its six integrated fronts.
Authorise formal engagement with MCTI and MEC, and contact with the municipalities of Nova Friburgo, Petrópolis and São Sebastião.
Consult the candidate municipalities and school systems on exposure, coverage, interest and maintenance before selection.
Appoint the responsible DPM and CGNAT team and prepare the Project Charter, with budget and schedule.
Authorise consultation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Brazilian Cooperation Agency on cooperation with the Chinese government, building on contacts made at the Hunan seminar.
Propose an interministerial ordinance and an action in the 2028–2031 Multi-Year Plan to institutionalise Climate Guardians as a State project.
Involve the Federal Network of Professional Education (SETEC/MEC) and state technical school networks from Phase 0.